HONG KONG China’s exports bounced back in November, recording a 5.9% increase from a year earlier, following an unexpected contraction in October. However, shipments to the United States continued to slide, falling nearly 29% year-on-year for the eighth consecutive month of double-digit declines.
While exports to the U.S. have struggled, Chinese shipments have surged to other regions, including Southeast Asia, Latin America, Africa, and the European Union, reflecting a shifting global trade landscape.
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Stronger Overall Exports and Record Trade Surplus
According to customs data released Monday, China’s total exports in November reached $330.3 billion, surpassing economists’ expectations. This marked a significant turnaround from October’s 1.1% decline.
China’s trade surplus also widened substantially. For the first 11 months of 2025, the surplus exceeded $1 trillion, reaching nearly $1.08 trillion, a record high for any single year, surpassing the $992 billion surplus recorded in 2024.
Regional Shifts in Export Destinations
Despite declining shipments to the U.S., Chinese exports have grown in other markets. Southeast Asia, Latin America, Africa, and the European Union have absorbed increased volumes, helping to offset losses from the U.S. market.
Import Growth and Domestic Challenges
China’s imports rose 1.9% in November to over $218.6 billion, up from 1% growth in October. However, the country’s property sector continues to weigh on consumer spending and business investment, limiting domestic demand.
Trade Truce with the United States
A year-long trade truce between China and the U.S. was established following a late-October meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping in South Korea. As part of the agreement, the U.S. has reduced tariffs on Chinese goods, while China has agreed to lift certain export controls, including those on rare earths.
Economists suggest that the November export data may not yet reflect the full impact of these tariff cuts. “Likely, November exports have yet to fully reflect the tariff cut, which should feed through in the coming months,” noted Lynn Song, ING Bank’s chief economist for Greater China.
Manufacturing Outlook and Economic Targets
China’s factory activity contracted for an eighth straight month in November, and economists caution that it is too early to confirm a sustained rebound in external demand despite the trade truce.
Nevertheless, robust export performance is expected to help China meet its 2025 economic growth target of around 5%. Chinese leaders recently emphasized advanced manufacturing as a key focus for the next five years. During an annual economic planning meeting on Monday, President Xi outlined growth strategies for 2026, emphasizing “pursuing progress while ensuring stability,” according to Xinhua, China’s state-run news agency.
Global Trade and Future Prospects
Despite temporary improvements, some analysts warn that a stable global trade environment may be short-lived, with U.S.-China relations remaining tense.
Yet, projections indicate that China will continue to expand its share of global exports. Morgan Stanley forecasts that by 2030, China’s market share will reach 16.5%, up from about 15% currently, driven by growth in advanced manufacturing sectors such as electric vehicles, robotics, and batteries.
“Despite persistent trade tensions, continued protectionism, and G20 economies implementing active industrial policies, we believe China will gain more share in the global goods export market,” said Chetan Ahya, Morgan Stanley’s chief Asia economist.
Frequently Asked Questions
What was China’s export growth in November 2025?
China’s exports rose 5.9% year-on-year in November, rebounding from a 1.1% decline in October.
How did exports to the United States perform?
Exports to the U.S. fell nearly 29% compared to last year, marking the eighth consecutive month of double-digit declines.
Which regions saw increased Chinese exports?
Shipments grew to Southeast Asia, Latin America, Africa, and the European Union, offsetting losses in the U.S. market.
What was China’s trade surplus for the first 11 months of 2025?
China’s trade surplus reached nearly $1.08 trillion, a record high for any single year.
How did imports perform in November?
Imports rose 1.9% year-on-year to $218.6 billion, improving from October’s 1% growth, despite ongoing weakness in the property sector.
What impact did the U.S.-China trade truce have?
The trade truce, agreed in late October, includes U.S. tariff reductions and China lifting certain export controls. Economists expect the effects of the truce to become more visible in the coming months.
Conclusion
China’s trade performance in November highlights a complex but resilient economic landscape. While exports to the United States continue to decline, robust growth in other regions has helped China achieve an overall export rebound and a record trade surplus. Imports have shown modest gains, though domestic challenges such as the property sector downturn remain a concern.
